Halperin Comments On Data
Mark Halperin’s latest analysis of the 2024 race is not painting a pretty picture for Kamala Harris or the Democrats, and it’s a reality check they probably didn’t want to hear. With private survey data reportedly showing that Harris is struggling in several key swing states, the road to victory for her campaign appears to be narrowing fast. Halperin’s insights suggest that, barring a dramatic shift, Donald Trump is well-positioned to win.
According to Halperin, the most recent private surveys reveal that Harris is at serious risk of losing up to six swing states, with Wisconsin emerging as a critical battleground. He noted that the situation is dire enough that if Wisconsin goes to Trump, Harris’s path to the White House is effectively closed off. This isn’t just speculation either—internal surveys from Senator Tammy Baldwin’s re-election campaign shows Harris trailing by three points in Wisconsin, a state that is absolutely vital to Democratic hopes.
“I just saw some new private polling that’s very robust. Private polling,” says @MarkHalperin. Kamala Harris “is in a lot of trouble … In the conversations I’m having with Trump people and Democrats with data, they are extremely bullish on Trump’s chances in the last 48 hours.… pic.twitter.com/KF3tSM2sLo
— 2WAY (@2waytvapp) October 9, 2024
The gravity of the situation is underscored by Halperin’s comments about conversations he’s had with both Trump supporters and Democrats. He says that both camps are “extremely bullish” on Trump’s chances, indicating a growing confidence among Republicans that they can win this race. Meanwhile, Harris’s position remains shaky, even in states where she was expected to perform well.
Halperin’s analysis also highlighted a recent New York Times survey that shows Harris leading Trump by just three points nationally, a margin that’s dangerously close to the survey’s margin of error. He pointed out that this slim lead isn’t giving the Harris campaign the cushion they need to feel secure, and if anything, it underscores her vulnerability as an “untested candidate” in this high-stakes battle.
Reminder: @MarkHalperin was the first to report on Biden dropping out of the race; he called it 3 days in advance.
“For you Harris people on here complaining that we’re talking about problems in the Harris campaign, you’re welcome to put your head in the sand about it.” https://t.co/Ccq18xy6Ea
— Frank Luntz (@FrankLuntz) October 9, 2024
The news from Wisconsin seems to be part of a broader pattern of bad numbers for Harris. Halperin mentioned that Michigan is also looking worse for her campaign than it was before. These Midwestern states are not just swing states; they’re the backbone of the Electoral College strategy for both parties. Losing them would likely mean a defeat for Harris, as there’s simply no clear path to victory without them.
Halperin was blunt in his critique of Harris supporters who might be in denial about the campaign’s troubles. He challenged those who dismiss the negative news to stop burying their heads in the sand, sarcastically suggesting that if they want sugar-coated narratives, they should tune in to MSNBC’s primetime lineup instead. But for those looking for the unfiltered truth, Halperin’s message was clear: the Harris campaign is in trouble, and the private survey data he’s seen is nothing short of brutal.
Republicans “are quite confident” Trump will take Pennsylvania and enough Sunbelt states to win next month, analyst Mark Halperin said. https://t.co/HJByXN0jdY
— Newsweek (@Newsweek) October 8, 2024
The fundamental issue for Harris isn’t just the state of the surveys—it’s her lack of traction with core Democratic voter groups. It’s no secret that she’s had difficulty connecting with the base, a struggle that dates back to the 2020 primary when her campaign collapsed before the first votes were even cast in Iowa. Halperin’s point is straightforward: being “not Trump” isn’t enough. History has shown that candidates running as the “anti” figure—like Mitt Romney in 2012 and John Kerry in 2004—often end up on the losing side. Harris’s inability to carve out a unique identity beyond opposition to Trump could be her undoing.