Silver’s 538 Gives Update
The poll momentum in recent weeks has been favoring former President Donald Trump, and after Vice President Kamala Harris’s interview with Bret Baier on Fox News, it seems that trend is likely to continue.
Harris’s inability to provide clear answers during the interview, combined with her defensive posture, appeared to backfire, leaving many to question her preparedness. In terms of presentation, she missed an opportunity to act presidential, and the fallout is already reflecting in public opinion and betting markets.
.@Polymarket – Presidential Election Winner
🟥 Donald Trump: 62% (new high)
🟦 Kamala Harris: 38%Sept. 19 odds – 🔵 Harris 52-47%
——
Swing States (chance of winning)Pennsylvania – 🔴 Trump 59-41%
Michigan – 🔴 Trump 56-44%
Wisconsin – 🔴 Trump 56-44%
Arizona – 🔴 Trump… https://t.co/4ZJaKnZhlO pic.twitter.com/rXde9Cqm4w— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) October 17, 2024
According to betting forecasts like Polymarket, Trump has seen a boost, gaining over 2 percent in the aftermath of the interview. This surge mirrors what we’ve been seeing in the polls across key swing states. Trump is currently leading in almost every battleground state except for Nevada, where it’s a dead heat, and Wisconsin, where Harris holds a razor-thin 0.3 percent lead.
The RealClearPolitics (RCP) average shows Harris with a slim national popular vote lead of just 1.5 percent. But given the electoral college bias seen in previous elections, such a narrow margin is not promising for the Harris campaign.
#NEW – @NateSilver538 Forecast (chance of winning the electoral college)
September 27
🟦 Harris: 58.1%
🟥 Trump: 41.7%October 17
🟥 Trump: 50.2%
🟦 Harris: 49.5%
——@Polymarket Senate Odds
🟥 Republicans: 80%Polymarket swing states odds 👇https://t.co/BBwAM9ruC4 pic.twitter.com/iiRSWKVryB
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) October 17, 2024
The shift in forecasts is significant. Even Nate Silver, known for his meticulous poll analysis, has adjusted his forecast, now giving Trump a slight edge at 50.2 percent to Harris’s 49.5 percent. The Trump campaign has also seen improved odds for Republicans regaining control of the Senate, which now sits at 80 percent in the Polymarket betting.
— Nickarama (@nickaramaOG) October 17, 2024
What’s clear is that Harris’s performance on Wednesday has done little to convince undecided or independent voters of her ability to lead. Meanwhile, Trump’s polling strength in critical states, and his ability to maintain control of the narrative, gives him an edge in what’s shaping up to be a tight race.