Skipping the Debate May Have Hurt Trump – Watch
Former President Donald Trump’s decision to skip the first Republican primary debate appears to have hurt, not helped, his campaign, according to recent polling.
Overall, his national average has dipped from 54.3 percent to 53 percent, according to RealClearPolitics. There is no state-level polling among early primary states to see if there is an effect on that level.
A poll from Emerson out Monday morning explains some of the effects the debate had on candidate perceptions:
“While Trump saw a slight dip in support, the question from this poll is whether this is a blip for Trump or if the other Republican candidates will be able to rally enough support to be competitive for the caucus and primary season,” Spencer Kimball, Executive Director of Emerson College Polling said.
“Different candidates have been able to pull varying demographic support from the Trump base, for example Mike Pence who saw an overall four-point bump in voter support was able to increase his support in the Midwest from 4% to 13% of the vote, while Trump saw his Midwest support drop from 54% to 42% after the debate,” Kimball said. “Nikki Haley’s support increased from about 2% to 9% among voters over 50 while Trump’s support dropped within this age group from about 56% to 49% after the debate.”
Overall, 57% of Republican Primary voters say they will definitely vote for the candidate they selected, a five point decrease from last week. Forty-three percent say there is a chance they could change their mind and vote for someone else.
“There appears to be a softening of support for Trump since last week’s survey, where 82% of Trump voters said they would definitely support him, compared to 71% after the debate. DeSantis’s support also softened from 32% who would definitely support to 25%, while Ramaswamy support remained consistent from 47% to 45%,” Kimball said.
Kimball notes, “When Trump is removed from the GOP ballot test, his voters split between DeSantis at 32% and Ramaswamy at 29%, with Pence at 16% — which suggests if Trump was to not run, a race between DeSantis and Ramaswamy could take shape.”
The debate clearly helped Haley and DeSantis and polarized views of Ramaswamy, whose unfavorables more than doubled.
Trump down. He lost ground by not being on stage. pic.twitter.com/Zxki5boDq2
— Patrick Ruffini (@PatrickRuffini) August 24, 2023
