Survey Gives Update Following A Series Of Controversies
With just weeks to go before Virginia chooses its next governor, the race between Republican Lt. Gov. Winsome Earle-Sears and Democrat Abigail Spanberger has tightened to a razor’s edge.
A new poll from A2 Insights, conducted September 26–28, places Earle-Sears within striking distance — trailing Spanberger by a narrow 3.1-point margin, 47.7% to 44.6%. Crucially, the margin of error places the contest in a statistical dead heat, setting the stage for a volatile final sprint toward November.
For Spanberger, the slide in polling momentum reflects a campaign increasingly dogged by cultural controversies and campaign baggage. Her repeated exhortation for supporters to “let your rage fuel you” has drawn criticism for promoting division — a stark contrast to Earle-Sears’s deliberate messaging around unity and tradition. “Virginia is for lovers — not rage,” Earle-Sears countered, echoing the state’s iconic tourism slogan while framing her opponent as an agent of ideological turmoil.
Questions surrounding Spanberger’s position on transgender issues in sports and public accommodations have further muddied the waters. Asked recently whether she supports biological males competing in women’s sports or using female restrooms, Spanberger offered a noncommittal response, referencing past case-by-case approaches but offering no definitive stance. Meanwhile, Earle-Sears has stayed firm, voicing unequivocal opposition and framing the issue as one of fairness and safety for women and girls.
Endorsements have proven to be a double-edged sword for Spanberger. A key 2023 supporter, Chesterfield County School Board member Dot Heffron, faced backlash after publicly praising the hypothetical assassination of conservative activist Charlie Kirk.
Though Spanberger condemned violence, she stopped short of distancing herself fully from Heffron. The fallout deepened when one of Spanberger’s own staffers echoed the sentiment online, prompting Republican leaders and Earle-Sears to demand a firmer rebuke.
On immigration, the lines are even clearer. Spanberger has pledged to repeal Gov. Youngkin’s executive order mandating cooperation with ICE, signaling a sharp policy reversal that critics say would turn Virginia into a de facto sanctuary state. Earle-Sears has made enforcement a cornerstone of her platform, vowing to uphold existing orders and prioritize the safety of Virginia residents over ideological posturing. Youngkin has joined the fray, accusing Spanberger of putting “dangerous criminals” ahead of families.
Spanberger’s vulnerability has drawn national attention. President Donald Trump publicly criticized her for supporting “men in women’s sports” and “open borders,” remarks Earle-Sears quickly amplified. Trump’s statement, while polarizing, has galvanized conservative energy around the lieutenant governor’s candidacy.
Ironically, one of the ugliest campaign moments may have swung sympathy back toward Earle-Sears. During a protest in Arlington, demonstrators brandished a sign comparing her stance on transgender issues to Jim Crow-era segregation. Leaders across the political spectrum condemned the image, and even Spanberger was forced to respond, labeling the comparison “racist and abhorrent.”