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Texas Race Heats Up

Texas Race Heats Up

Texas politics is rarely dull, but the latest Emerson College Polling/Nexstar Media numbers inject a fresh jolt of drama into the 2026 U.S. Senate race—and none of it is good news for Rep. Jasmine Crockett (TX-30). Once seen as a rising Democratic star with a devoted base, Crockett now finds herself trailing by a significant nine-point margin behind her primary opponent, State Rep. James Talarico. For a campaign that hoped to build momentum heading into March, this poll reads like a flashing red warning sign.

Talarico, bolstered by a surge of support among Hispanic and white Democrats, has pulled ahead with 47 percent of the vote. Crockett trails at 38 percent, with 15 percent of voters still undecided—a sliver of hope, but not much of a cushion with the primary less than two months away. Notably, 80 percent of Black Democratic voters remain loyal to Crockett, underscoring her deep roots in that community. But across every other demographic, Talarico is outpacing her—and not by small margins.


The gender split is especially telling: Talarico wins men by a staggering 22 points. Women, meanwhile, are deadlocked. It’s a dynamic that suggests Talarico has carved out an image not just as a progressive darling, but as a broader, more mainstream alternative—no small feat in a party that’s often fractured along ideological lines.

Then there’s the money. In politics, cash doesn’t guarantee a win, but a candidate with a $13 million war chest—$7 million of that raised in the most recent quarter—certainly isn’t playing catch-up. Crockett’s campaign has chosen not to disclose its Q4 fundraising totals, instead offering a populist defense: “Our average donation is $20!” That messaging may resonate with grassroots supporters, but it also raises eyebrows—especially when a campaign with so much at stake ducks transparency.


Crockett’s bid to move up the ladder comes at a precarious time. Ironically, redistricting—an issue that once vaulted her into the national conversation—is now pushing her out of her House seat altogether. She’s in this Senate race in part because she’s being politically displaced. Talarico, by contrast, jumped in under a different banner: defiance. His profile soared after he and fellow Democrats famously fled the Texas Capitol in protest of a GOP redistricting push, and he’s capitalized on that exposure ever since.

Meanwhile, on the Republican side, the contest to replace—or re-elect—Senator John Cornyn is anything but settled. Attorney General Ken Paxton narrowly leads Cornyn 27 to 26 percent, with Wesley Hunt pulling a respectable 16 percent and a massive 29 percent still undecided. In potential general election matchups, Cornyn and Hunt both fare well against either Democratic contender. Paxton, however, ends up in a statistical tie—evidence that his political baggage could prove too heavy in a statewide general.


For now, Crockett isn’t out—but her path forward narrows with each passing day. A decisive fundraising gap, demographic headwinds, and shifting political tides have put her campaign on notice. She entered the race with fire; now she’s fighting to avoid being extinguished. The countdown to March 2 has begun.

Written by Mark Stevens - January 16, 2026