The PA Senate Race Is Back to a ‘Toss Up’ – Watch
So much can still change in these midterm races, for instance, in the battleground of Pennsylvania, the Cook Political Report has changed its evaluation of the U.S. Senate race. This shootout between Republican political newcomer Mehmet Oz and current Democrat Lt. Governor John Fetterman was squarely in Fetterman’s column.
The political handicappers at Cook had its rating for the Senate race in PA to “Lean Democrat” on August 18. But noted that “Republican spending against Democratic nominee John Fetterman had yet to ramp up.” They left it wide open to change their rating before election day, and they have.
On Tuesday, Cook walked its rating back through the door to make the U.S. Senate race in Pennsylvania a “Toss Up.”
Cook’s announcement explained, “In conversations with several GOP strategists and lawmakers — who a month and a half ago had begun to put the Keystone State in the loss column — this has emerged as a margin-of-error race that they once again see winnable.”
“Republicans and Democrats alike admit the race has tightened and that Pennsylvania could be the tipping point state for the Senate majority.”
The report used polling from FiveThirtyEight and RealClearPolitics. These polls showed that the race is getting closer and closer and the momentum is with Oz. Fetterman took a major hit from mainstream media over his refusal to debate his opponent.
Cook said, “it is becoming clear many Republican voters are coming home to Oz.”
Cook’s analysis also said, “A Suffolk University/USA Today poll out today, for example, shows Fetterman ahead of Oz by six points (46%-40%)” compared to “several polls in late August and early September showed Fetterman above or hovering just below 50 percent,” showing “a clear downward trend.”
The messaging being used by the Oz campaign and Republican groups are working.
New rating change: #PASEN moves from Lean D to Toss Up
— Cook Political Report (@CookPolitical) October 4, 2022
“The more interesting number, as Amy Walter has previously written about, is that Fetterman's vote share has decreased — and as we saw in polls in 2020, for Democrats especially, it's been more instructive to look at that number as a possible ceiling” https://t.co/tmJBwEvvlc
— Josh Kraushaar (@JoshKraushaar) October 4, 2022