There’s One Poll You Probably Should Trust, and It’s Good News for GOP

It’s hard to know whether you can trust a poll or not trust it. They just don’t usually tell the whole story and they often accentuate whatever the originator wants to be accentuated. 

There is one pollster that has earned some trust, they get it right more often than they don’t. And they are sounding an alarm that polls focused on the midterm election are somewhat skewed. 

The Trafalgar Group’s founder and senior strategist, Robert Cahaly, sat down with the “Election Wire” show and shared that the Democratic lead in races is not as strong as they think it is. 

Cahaly also noted that Republicans are being severely underrepresented and the Democrats don’t have the numbers most polls are telling them they do.

“These submerged voters aren’t answering polls, they aren’t putting stickers on their cars, or signs in their yard — they’re not even posting on social media,” Cahaly said. “They are underwater. They’re not saying a word to anybody until election day.”

This expert also said that voters should not trust polls in the coming weeks because pollsters failed to accurately predict the last three elections. They favored Democrats and undercounted Republicans. 

“Polls have two purposes,” he said. “They’re either to reflect the electorate, or they’re to affect the electorate — and too many of these media and university-based polls are designed to affect the electorate and are trying to create a false narrative quite often when there’s not one.”

Cahaly, also said, “This year, our fear is that people are not going to be polled that are Trump supporters because all that Biden has said, and all the apparent attacks, and people coming after them and they’re just hesitant even to participate.”

Even with the GOP being under-sampled, many of them are already signaling that Republicans are doing very well. So Trafalgar is probably on to something.