Trump Comments On Selzer
Ann Selzer, once hailed as the pinnacle of accuracy in polling, has officially announced her retirement amid a storm of controversy after her final Iowa poll missed the mark by a staggering 14 points. Known as the “gold standard” of political forecasting, Selzer’s Iowa Poll in October had projected a slim 47-44 lead for Kamala Harris over Donald Trump.
For many political insiders, especially those on the right, this number felt absurdly out of sync with the state’s reality. Iowa had drifted solidly red over recent election cycles, so seeing it painted as a potential Harris victory seemed to ignore just about every political signpost along the road.
While her supporters in the media might have hoped this poll was a game-changer for Harris, the reality was starkly different. Trump claimed Iowa with a resounding 13-point lead, leaving Selzer’s final polling effort off by a margin no one could overlook. Many Republicans scoffed at the idea that Iowa, a state that Trump won by 18 points just months earlier, could have flipped so dramatically.
To them, this poll was a mirage in the desert for Democrats who’d been starved for optimistic news. For those familiar with the ebb and flow of Iowa’s political leanings, the numbers didn’t add up. If Iowa had truly been in play, Democrats would have flooded the state with resources and Harris would’ve made her presence known.
BREAKING: Trump calls for investigation into disgraced Iowa pollster Ann Selzer after her pre-Election Day poll showed Harris leading the state by 3 points.
“She knew exactly what she was doing…. An investigation is fully called for!” pic.twitter.com/OTCCldrBqb
— Breaking911 (@Breaking911) November 17, 2024
Selzer’s retreat from the world of election polling ends a storied career. Her work had achieved a near-mythic status, accurately capturing voter sentiment in high-stakes races for over two decades. Her Iowa Poll’s predictions for the Democratic caucuses in 2004, her foresight in the 2008 caucus that propelled Barack Obama to victory, and her read on Rick Santorum’s late surge in 2012—all these cemented her reputation as a pollster who could see beyond the noise.
But with her final poll missing the mark so spectacularly, the luster of her career is somewhat tarnished, raising uncomfortable questions about the reliability of polls in today’s polarized landscape.
President-elect Donald Trump isn’t letting this controversy slide quietly into history. He has publicly called for an investigation into Selzer’s Iowa poll, suggesting it may have been more of a politically-motivated narrative boost than a scientific forecast.
The Des Moines Register’s parent company, Gannett, is already conducting an internal audit to investigate the polling methodology and determine why the survey misfired so badly. To critics, particularly on the right, the poll felt like an echo of what they see as liberal media bias—a last-ditch attempt to generate a bit of momentum for Harris, however fleeting.
For Selzer, the retirement announcement seems like an attempt to close the book on a career that, despite this high-profile miss, is filled with landmark accomplishments. She expressed mixed emotions in her op-ed announcing her departure, writing, “Would I have liked to make this announcement after a final poll aligned with Election Day results? Of course… It’s ironic that it’s just the opposite.” She’s proud of the work she’s done over the years, but it’s a bittersweet end to a career marked by accuracy until this abrupt last chapter.