Why Didn’t the GOP Come Up with More Wins? – Take a Look
Has anybody come up with solid answers for why the GOP did not come up with more wins despite what all the polls and date points suggested?
A popular answer to this penetrating question is the quality of GOP candidates. But Democrats got John Fetterman in…how in the world. They also got a dead man elected. Those who voted for Fetterman could only have been focused on the greater good of the party.
McConnell shifted money away from some races and he probably should not have. He put money toward trying to help Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-AK) beat Trump-endorsed Republican Kelly Tshibaka. That was a bad political move, especially after Murkowski ended up endorsing the Democrat running for the House seat. So McConnell ended up helping someone working against the Party.
But how do you explain that the polls indicated that things were moving toward the GOP and that independents were breaking for the Republicans as well? Poll after poll shows that Americans were upset with Biden and believed the country was moving in the wrong direction.
The red wave hit Florida where Gov. Ron DeSantis won by almost twenty points, and the GOP even flipped Miami-Dade county.
The one thing that the media is not promoting is that Republicans picked up more of the popular vote significantly.
Nate Cohn talked about this movement in October. Real Clear Politics explained, “The more you dig through the #s the more stunning this election looks. GOP moved the national vote roughly 7 points in their direction from 2020 but will gain only a handful of House seats & make no gains (or may even lose a seat) in the Senate…..”
This is one way to answer the question and reconcile the polls, there was inefficient vote distribution, the red areas got redder and Republicans picked up the black and Latino votes, but in areas that didn’t flip races.
The more you dig through the #s the more stunning this election looks. GOP moved the national vote roughly 7 points in their direction from 2020 but will gain only a handful of House seats & make no gains (or may even lose a seat) in the Senate…..
— Tom Bevan (@TomBevanRCP) November 13, 2022
One of the quiet stories under the hood is that Republicans are looking like they'll win the popular vote. Probably a popular vote swing of 5% (depending on how CA votes work out), swinging about 2% of the chamber. IOW, the generic polls are likely to be about spot on. Why? 1/
— Sean T at RCP is a free elf (@SeanTrende) November 10, 2022
Even though according to the exit polls the economy was the number one issue for voters, it wasn't as dominant as expected. And those who rated the economy 'not so good' overhwelmingly voted for Dems, including in all the major senate races – even in Florida where Rubio won big. pic.twitter.com/QiEzRT7OoK
— Tom Bevan (@TomBevanRCP) November 13, 2022
