2028 Presidential Frontrunners Emerge In New Poll
A new Emerson College Polling survey offers one of the earliest glimpses into the 2028 presidential race — and the emerging landscape reveals two very different parties taking shape.
On the Democrat side, California Gov. Gavin Newsom holds a narrow lead in a fragmented primary field. Meanwhile, Vice President JD Vance appears to be consolidating Republican support at a striking pace, posting a commanding advantage over potential GOP rivals. The same survey also signals a shift in the broader political climate, with Democrats gaining ground ahead of the 2026 midterm elections.
In the Democrat primary, Newsom leads with 20% support. Former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg follows at 16%, while Vice President Kamala Harris registers 13%. Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez pulls in 9%, Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro earns 7%, and Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear captures 5%. Notably, 24% of Democrat voters remain undecided — a sizable bloc that underscores how fluid the contest remains.
The demographic breakdown reveals early coalition-building. Ocasio-Cortez commands a plurality among voters under 30, capturing 20% of that age group. Buttigieg leads among women at 20% and tops postgraduates with 21%, signaling continued strength among highly educated voters. Newsom performs strongest among voters over 50, where he garners 23% support. Harris dominates among Black voters with 36%, marking her most solid base in the early field.
Emerson College Polling Executive Director Spencer Kimball noted that candidates are beginning to carve out distinct constituencies, though no one has unified the party. With nearly one in four Democrat voters undecided, shifts in visibility, fundraising, or national dynamics could quickly alter the standings.
The Republican picture is far less divided — at least for now.
Vance posts 52% support, more than doubling Secretary of State Marco Rubio’s 20%. Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis trails with 6%, while 11% of Republican voters remain undecided. Among self-identified Republicans, Vance’s dominance becomes even clearer: 59% back the vice president compared to Rubio’s 19%. Independents planning to vote in the GOP primary also favor Vance, though by a narrower 33% to 23% margin.
The contrast between the two parties is stark. Democrats face an unsettled and competitive field. Republicans, at this early stage, appear to be coalescing quickly around a single figure.
Beyond the presidential race, the survey suggests Democrats hold momentum heading into the 2026 midterms. On the generic congressional ballot, Democrats lead Republicans 50% to 42%, an eight-point edge and a two-point improvement from the previous month. Independents break decisively for Democrats, 50% to 37%, a development with potentially significant implications.
Economic pressures appear central to voter sentiment. Cost of living ranks as the top concern, with a mean importance score of 8.2 out of 10. Healthcare costs follow at 7.8, inflation at 7.6, deportation policy at 7.1, healthcare access at 6.9, and border security at 6.3.
Partisan divides remain pronounced. Democrats rate healthcare costs highest and border security lowest, while Republicans prioritize border security and deportation policy above all else. Independents align most closely with the broader electorate, placing cost of living at the top.
The Emerson national survey was conducted Feb. 21-22 among 1,000 likely voters and carries a credibility interval of plus or minus 3 percentage points. Though 2028 remains distant, the early lines are being drawn — and both parties are already positioning for a volatile political future.